Sunday, November 04, 2012
The state of the race
On Tuesday American’s will cast their ballots for the next President of the United States. I never got my ballot in the mail, so I guess I will not be voting this year. But most people know I would have voted for Romney. And even though the polls say the race is tied, I am pretty sure Romney will win the election. He will easily win the popular vote, and I am holding my breath to see if he wins the electoral college. If you don't understand the system, each of the 50 States has delegates to what is called the electoral college. The States have different numbers of delegates based on population. So Ohio has 16 delegates for example. And in order to win the election, the person running needs 270 electoral votes. It is very possible to win the popular vote, and still lose the election. Al Gore barley won the popular vote, but lost the election to Bush. We may see this again if Romney does not win the State of Ohio. But I've read many articles about the polls. And in many polls they have samples that include 38% Democrats to 31% Republicans. And over the past 4 years the number of people registering as Democrat has dropped by 15%. So in 2008 you had 7 more Democrats then Republicans. Today you have an 8 point advantage for the Republicans. This is not reflected in most of the polls. And the majority of Independents are breaking for Romney. Also large voting blocks like people under 30 have not even registered to vote. Registration among younger voters is down by 50%. This was a reliable Democratic block of voters. Not this year. If they did not register to vote, they can not vote on Tuesday. And even though the Democrats usually have more early voters, this year Republicans have also had more early voters in key states like Iowa. So in almost every way Romney is looking like he will win this election. Also, in Ohio, Obama had crowds of only 3000, and Romney's crowds were 30,000. So maybe that tells you something. The news is trying to make this look close, and even says Obama has the advantage, but I think they are just spinning a tale, trying to help Obama win. I’m holding my breath, but I'm pretty sure Romney will win, and maybe by a landslide. In 2000 there were a total of 538 electoral votes available with 270 needed to win. Republican George W. Bush, with 50,456,002 popular votes won 271 electoral votes. His Democratic opponent, Al Gore, won the popular vote with 50,999,897 votes, but won only 266 electoral votes. Bush was elected president.